JP Morgan - 10 July 2020
We see upside risks to consensus estimates for Alibaba’s June quarter FY21 estimates, as we believe the recovery of its core-core GMV/revenue progressed better than JPM/consensus forecasts, largely due to a solid recovery of China’s ecommerce market in general. While Alibaba maintained heavy investments in several strategically important areas, such as less developed markets and local consumer services, our observation suggests that Alibaba did not turn overly aggressive in terms of sales and marketing efforts in the June quarter, implying that its profitability should be supported in the quarter. June Q results could be a positive catalyst in the near term. While fast growth of competitors including PDD, ecommerce live streaming, and Tencent mini program could weigh on Alibaba’s share price sentiment in the near term, we see more upside than downside risk to the current share price on a 12-month basis as: 1) non-commerce businesses could lead to positive surprise and drive share price upside (e.g. improving cloud margin, further ramp-up on Fintech profitability); 2) there could be cost saving from investment initiatives. Alibaba’s share price has underperformed peers YTD despite a strong run in the past two weeks (+21% vs. JD/PDD/MSCI China +85%/+144%/+15%). We expect the share price performance to catch up with peers on a three-month view due to 1) solid June quarter, 2) the stock’s attractive valuation, and 3) relative share price underperformance.
Credit Suisse - 15 June 2020
Along with the secular channel shift to online in the home appliance segment, JD is set to gain the most market share driven by its potential to tap into lower tier cities, higher efficiency, and accountable logistics network.
We expect JD to deliver 26%, if not higher, revenue growth in 2Q, amid the strongest 6.18 event in history. The solid development of the FMCG category will no doubt enhance user engagement and stickiness, allowing cross-selling and room for margin upside.
The upcoming secondary HK listing, and potential listing of JD Logistics, function as the short-term catalysts.
We raise TP to US$75.5, up from US$65.0, consisting of JD mall (at US$55.5, or 29.0x 2021 P/E), JDL at US$10.4, Dada at US$0.8 and JD Health at US$8.9. Despite the nice run YTD, with a 62% share price rally, we see valuation remains reasonable, trading at 31.0x 2021E P/E, compared to retailer peers’ 27.0x but with a much faster growth profile (38% EPS CAGR over 2019-22E vs peers’ mean at 13%), indicating mere 0.8x PEG vs peers 2.0x.
HSBC - 8 July 2020
We cut our 2Q GMV estimate, yet expect faster revenue growth; scenario analysis implies 18-73x forward PE (exhibit 1)
Multiple strategies aim to improve user retention and monetization, especially to mass market distributors/retailers
Maintain Hold and lift TP to USD96 (from USD82) on narrowing losses thanks to better marketing efficiency
Morgan Stanley - May 27, 2020
Accelerated MAU growth in 1Q and expanding TAM could drive revenue estimate beats from 2Q onwards, and sustain the fastest growth among peers for longer. We raise our price target and change our valuation to 6x 2021e P/S from DCF.
UBS - 17 June 2020
We hosted an investor call with Momo, and leave our numbers unchanged as we felt management's message has remained consistent. The company highlighted that user recovery on core Momo has been on track since the end of March, and that they were not seeing a structural shift towards short video platforms in number of users. Management also commented that live streaming revenue delivered high teens YoY growth in January before the Covid-19 impact but that they continue to expect YoY decline in live stream revenue to worsen in 2Q versus 1Q as spending from top payers remains weak. We currently forecast live streaming revenue to decline for the remaining 3 quarters on a YoY basis, but that the rate of decline should bottom out in 2Q as we think businesses and consumer sentiments can improve in 2H20.
Morgan Stanley - June 22, 2020
We believe the share price will fall relative to the industry over the next 60 days. This is because the stock has traded up recently, making short term valuation much less compelling.We do not see material changes to Huya's fundamentals apart from cost synergies (mainly streamers signup bonus and eSports content costs of ~15% of revenue) despite a potential merger (China Game Streaming: Big Two becoming the Big One? (11 Jun 2020). We see limited diversification from live streaming in China (thus subject to de-rating gradually), Tencent's game ecosystem, slowing total MAU growth (flat QoQ in 1Q20) and potential competition from Bilibili and Kuaishou. In addition, we see valuation gap between Huya and Douyu closing. Huya and Douyu are trading at EVs of US$3.4bn and US$2.8bn (vs. Momo of US$3.1bn), implying US$22 and US$17 per MAU, respectively, in 1Q20. Tencent acquired Huya's controlling stake in April at US$15.9/ADS.
CREDIT SUISSE - 2 July 2020
We highlight the new ES8 high-end SUV sales volume rose 68% MoM to 1,264 units, which was the highest volume in the past 12 months. As currently ES8 is equipped with a 70 kWh battery pack, we think ES8 monthly volume could further increase after the 100 kWh battery pack version is available (likely end-2020), as most ES8 potential buyers will likely prefer the 100 kWh longer driving distance version.
CREDIT SUISSE - 6 July 2020
Despite near-term challenges, we see a great opportunity for EDU to address long-term issues. The crisis should help group management accelerate digitalisation of the nationwide school network and lift operations efficiency. EDU's offline business becomes more robust to defend market share against the pure-online players.
CREDIT SUISSE - 8 July 2020
We estimate 1Q FY21 revenue to increase 31% YoY. Adjusted OPM is expected to be 2.1%. For 2Q FY21, we estimate revenue to increase 38% YoY. Adjusted OPM is projected to drop by 1.5% to 8.3%. We expect TAL to accelerate capacity expansion and achieve 25% growth for FY21 to consolidate the industry post reopening.
UBS - 6 July 2020
We reiterate our Buy rating on TME (note), and we are optimistic QQ Music 10.0 can bring user engagement to a new level, improve user time spent, and diversify revenues streams. On July 1, TME formerly launched QQ Music 10.0, a major product update from the 9.0 version launched in May 2019. We believe the app is evolving beyond its previous positioning as a streaming music platform to a music complex also featuring live streaming, short video, and social networking. QQ Music introduced video live streaming recently, which we believe has potential for Rmb10bn revenue over the medium term (note). The app now gives Video and the new Putong Community products level 1 access (tabs in the app), aiming to better utilize its existing video content library, and activate social connections within the ecosystem.